This article was originally published on Christie’s International Real Estate’s blog Luxury Defined.
COVID-19 has not only changed the way we live, but looks set to change where we live too. Case in point: online searches for houses in suburban areas rose by 13 percent in May. As Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said in a recent report: “The flight to the suburbs is real.”
It’s a trend that’s particularly visible in a megalopolis like New York City, where, The Wall Street Journal reports, moves to neighboring Connecticut have more than doubled from 2019. “We’re seeing an uptick in sales that we haven’t seen in years, particularly in homes priced at $1.5 million and above,” confirms Karla Murtaugh, Realtor at Neumann Real Estate in Ridgefield. “Many New York City residents who rented properties here during the city’s shutdown in March decided to buy after experiencing the amazing lifestyle, beautiful surroundings, and nationally ranked schools on offer.”
But, while suburban markets are experiencing a boom, many housing economists warn that urban property values could be facing a corresponding long-term decline. So, should we be looking to urban renewal as a way to save our cities?
Homebuyers from New York City are increasingly choosing Connecticut’s greener pastures, with spacious suburban areas attracting particular interest. Image: Getty Images
“Yes,” says human geography expert Joel Kotkin, “the traditional roles of cities have to be integrated with the new realities of the age.” But what needs to happen to attract new residents to a city, when urban buzz often comes at the cost of the fresh air, greater space, and outdoor areas on which we now place such a premium?
It can be done if we develop a new paradigm, says Kotkin, presidential fellow in urban futures at California’s Chapman University. “Cities need to compete for their residents on the basis of quality of life. They need to offer better choices and up their game in terms of amenities.”
In that respect, Los Angeles—long known as a “city of villages,” comprising many small incorporated towns, with business districts close to adjacent residential streets—has led the way since its inception. Kotkin fondly remembers his years in Studio City, “where everyone worked from home, but there were thousands of businesses and restaurants, and lots of places to meet.”
While Phoenix, Arizona, has a bustling downtown core, there are more than a dozen hubs throughout the metro area to ensure that, even on its periphery, inhabitants have access to the same amenities.
Irvine, a newer city in nearby Orange County that was developed in the 1960s and ’70s, took a leaf from L.A.’s book, says Kotkin. He cites it as a model example of a planned community with good services, plenty of green space, and jobs on its doorstep, adding that the other American cities that will fare best are those with dispersed city centers instead of a single downtown. “The ideal is having everything you need—work, schools, entertainment, and recreational facilities—within a 20-minute walk, a 10-minute bike ride, or a five-minute drive from your home.”
The Best of Both
So, could mixed-use developments, which combine the best elements of both city and suburban life, be the way forward? Yes, says Michael Berkowitz, a New York-based urban-resilience expert and founding principal of Resilient Cities Catalyst, which helps cities around the world to prepare for extraordinary challenges, such as hurricanes, droughts, terrorist attacks, or pandemics. He believes Domino Park, a development in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg neighborhood, represents the face of the future.
The Domino Sugar redevelopment offers residential, retail, and commercial areas alongside recreational space in Domino Park—a six-acre (2.4 ha) green belt designed by the landscape architects behind New York Citys High Line.
Here, developer Two Trees Management converted the disused Domino Sugar Refinery into residential buildings, along with neighborhood gathering areas and dedicated retail spaces—including a yoga studio, wine store, and Michelin-starred restaurant. “It’s no longer about just building a tower where people live,” Berkowitz explains, “but rather an entire ecosystem in order to flourish.”
Happily, another point the experts agree on is that the city will survive—even if it falls out of fashion temporarily. “It’s been under siege for centuries, with ups and downs, but it’s always regained popularity,” says Kaan. And Berkowitz points out that the arrival of an effective COVID-19 vaccine could create its own shift. “When that happens, more people will once again want to be near to others, in the places that have traditionally been the hubs of innovation, wealth, and creativity—the cities.”